The movers and the money: What happens when America stops migrating
Between 2018 and 2023, nearly 34 million Americans packed up and crossed a state line. In 2023 alone, 6.7 million did just that, and over the course of a single year, the population of a mid-sized country picked up its income, its tax base, and its buying power and set it down somewhere new. So […]
What can low vacancy rates tell us about America’s housing market?
Housing vacancy is often interpreted as an indicator of whether the United States has enough homes. But in reality, it actually reflects the volume of properties available to buyers at any particular moment. Single-family homeowner vacancy rates have generally remained between 1% and 2%, rising to approximately 2.8% during the housing crisis, when foreclosures and […]
Can cryptocurrency diminish the power of financial intermediaries?
Cryptocurrency was supposed to cut out the middleman. Almost two decades later, the middlemen are still standing. Some of them have just learned to write better code. Stablecoins and blockchain payment systems have made real progress against the delays, fees and layers that clog the movement of money. What they have not done is abolish […]
Why ownership is losing its traditional appeal
The way we think about ownership has remained remarkably consistent for decades, even though the world around it has changed dramatically. We still tend to assume that buying more assets represents financial progress. But modern technology, demographics and economics are forcing us to reconsider the veracity of that assumption. Ownership no longer carries the same […]
What history can teach us about technological disruption
There exists a recurring spell of anxiety that seems to affect every generation. It arrived with the telegraph, the assembly line and the personal computer, and now it has arrived with artificial intelligence. Each time, it repeats the same mantra that this time is different. Today, AI is at the centre of a debate that […]
Why we see what we want to see in the markets
Investing is often depicted as a purely analytical process. We are expected to scrutinize datasets, weigh potential hazards, pinpoint openings and execute a logical choice, which seems foolproof. But the reality of the market is far more emotional than we might like to admit. Finance is an exceptionally dense space, which forces those of us […]
What Henry Ford can teach us about the future of AI
I recently read a McKinsey analysis that draws a provocative parallel between the rise of artificial intelligence and Henry Ford’s assembly line. It presents an interesting comparison that pivots the narrative away from the mechanics of technology and toward the architecture of systems. As the article recounts, Ford’s breakthrough was not just about making a […]
What could declining birth rates mean for long-term real estate demand?
For decades, the real estate market has operated with a powerful structural tailwind behind it. That tailwind is population growth. As more people entered the economy, new households formed, cities expanded and demand for housing grew. The modern housing market has essentially evolved around the expectation that this pattern will continue. However, today, demographic outlooks […]
We’re focusing on crypto prices, but missing the progress in infrastructure
Crypto has a remarkable ability to distract people. Every rally becomes a revolution and every crash seems to merit a funeral procession. But underneath all that hype, there is something far more interesting we should be paying attention to. To my mind, the real headline story is not the swings and roundabouts of the digital […]
Have we misunderstood what “normal” interest rates look like?
People today talk about 6–7% mortgage rates as though they are extreme. But if we zoom out, these rates are actually much closer to long-term historical averages than the unusually cheap borrowing environment that followed the 2008 financial crisis. For more than a decade, the U.S. economy became accustomed to near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing […]